🔗 Share this article

Within the considerable disarray following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.