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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd